Furlong & Fathom

Population · 1950–2100

Why India overtook China, and what happens next

From 1950, when UN records begin, China had more people than any other country. In 2022 India moved ahead. The charts below follow both countries from 1950 to the UN's projections for 2100.

1. The race

In 1950 the twelve most populous countries included Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France. By 2023 Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico and Ethiopia had taken their places. The United States was 3rd the whole time. China stayed 1st until India passed it in 2022, with 1,425,423,212 people to China's 1,425,179,569.

Most of the movement happens lower down. France was the first of the four to drop out, in 1961, followed by Italy in 1968, the United Kingdom in 1974 and Germany in 2002. Nigeria reached the top ten in 1983 and has stayed there.

2. The gap

China started 1950 with 544 million people and India with 346 million. The gap was widest in 1975, at 305 million. China's population peaked in 2021 at 1.43 billion. India's kept growing.

Whether the gap grows or shrinks depends on which country adds more people that year. Up to 1975 it was mostly China. Its biggest year was 1970, when it grew by 21.2 million, more than any country has grown in a single year since 1950. After 1975 India added more in every year but 1987 to 1990, when the gap widened slightly. India's own biggest year was 2001, at 20.0 million.

3. Births per woman

The main cause is how many children women have. Demographers measure it with the total fertility rate, the average number of births per woman over her lifetime at that year's rates. At about 2.1, a population replaces itself in the long run. China dropped below 2.1 in 1991. India got there in 2020, 29 years later. In 2023 the rate was 1.0 in China and 2.0 in India.

The line sits at 2.1 rather than 2 because slightly more boys than girls are born, and not every girl lives to have children of her own.

A population doesn't stop growing as soon as births fall. The large generations born earlier are still of an age to have children, so growth slows over decades. China's population kept growing for 30 years after its rate fell below 2.1. In the UN's projection, India's keeps growing for 41 years after reaching it.

4. Young and old

A population pyramid splits a country into five-year age groups, men on the left and women on the right. Each bar here is a share of the whole population, so China and India can be compared directly. In 1950 the median age was 22 in China and 20 in India. By 2023 it was 39 in China and 28 in India. That year 14% of people in China were 65 or older, compared with 7% in India.

The widest bar marks the largest age group. In 2023 that was people aged 50–54 in China and 20–24 in India. Children under 15 made up 35% of China's population in 1950 and 17% in 2023. In India the share fell from 38% to 25%.

5. China and India to 2100

In the UN's projections both countries keep ageing. By 2100, 46% of people in China and 30% in India would be 65 or older, with median ages of 61 and 48. India's population is projected to peak around 2061 at 1.70 billion. China's is expected to fall below 1 billion around 2070 and to reach 633 million by 2100, 55.5% fewer than in 2023.

By 2100 the widest bar in China's pyramid would be people aged 80–84. In 1950 China had 12 people of working age (15 to 64) for each person aged 65 or over, and in 2023 it had 4.8. By 2100 the two groups would be about the same size, while India would have 1.9 working-age people for each person aged 65 or over.

6. Third place

India and China are projected to stay 1st and 2nd every year until 2100. Below them the order changes a lot. In the UN's medium projection Pakistan passes the United States around 2053 and becomes the third most populous country. Nigeria passes the United States around 2057, and by 2100 the United States is 6th. The world's population as a whole is projected to peak around 2084 at 10.29 billion.

Much of the change happens in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1950 none of the ten most populous countries was there. In 2023 one was, Nigeria. In the UN's projection for 2100 there are four: Nigeria, DR Congo, Ethiopia and Tanzania.

These are projections. They rest on assumptions about births, deaths and migration, and each new UN revision updates them.

Key takeaways

  • India passed China in 2022 (UN mid-year estimates). China had been 1st since UN records began in 1950.
  • Births per woman fell below 2.1 in China in 1991, and in India in 2020.
  • China's population peaked in 2021. The UN projects 633 million by 2100.
  • The median age in China rose from 22 in 1950 to 39 in 2023. In India it rose from 20 to 28.
  • By 2100 the UN projects Pakistan in 3rd place and the United States in 6th.

How to read these charts

Colours follow World Bank regions and stay the same in every chart. Dashed lines, hatched bars and the "UN projection" label mark projected values. Each chart has play and pause, a timeline and a speed control. On a phone the charts use a taller layout.

Questions

When did India's population overtake China's?

According to the UN's World Population Prospects 2024, India first had more people than China in 2022 (mid-year estimates). Earlier UN figures and other organisations put it between 2021 and 2023.

Why did India overtake China?

Mainly because births per woman fell earlier and further in China (below the replacement level of about 2.1 in 1991) than in India (2020). China's population peaked in 2021 and has been falling since.

What will China's population be in 2100?

The UN's medium projection is 633 million, 55.5% fewer than in 2023. Projections are revised as new data comes in.

Which country will be 3rd largest in 2100?

The UN projects Pakistan, with 511 million people, ahead of Nigeria (477 million).

Notes and methodology

  • Data: UN DESA Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant. Values for 1950–2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 are projections. Accessed 2026-11-02.
  • Population is the total on 1 July of each year. Births per woman is the total fertility rate. Median age splits the population into two equal halves.
  • The animation moves smoothly between years. At each whole year the value shown is the source value.
  • Sources date the crossover differently. In this UN revision India first exceeds China in mid-2022, by 1,425,423,212 to 1,425,179,569. The previous UN revision (2022) put it in 2023, and World Bank data, which uses China's national statistics, shows 2021.
  • Country figures follow the UN's definitions in World Population Prospects 2024. Some names are shortened for display (for example "Russian Federation" is shown as "Russia").

Sources

Download the data (CSV)

Visualisation by Furlong & Fathom. Music in the video: "Ego Chall" by Blue Deer Studio (YouTube Audio Library) · "Stake Out" by Alex Jones / Xander Jones (YouTube Audio Library) · "Vibe Check" by Blue Deer Studio (YouTube Audio Library). Last updated 2 November 2026.